The results have been counted, and Dublin West has now elected its five TDs for the 34th session of the Dáil. These are, in order of election:
- Jack Chambers, Fianna Fáil
- Paul Donnelly, Sinn Féin
- Emer Currie, Fine Gael
- Ruth Coppinger, People Before Profit-Solidarity
- Roderic O’Gorman, Green Party
The count as it happened
By 12pm on Saturday, the tallies made it apparent that Jack Chambers and Paul Donnelly would be elected on the first count. What was surprising however was that in contrast to 2020, Paul Donnelly did not top the poll and Sinn Féin had lost over 25% of its first-preference vote compared to the last election. Jack Chambers and Fianna Fáil on the other hand gained 43%, both running two candidates this time around.
Other notable statistics included a massive rise in support for independents, a 412% gain on 2020 helped by a number of well-known candidates locally throwing their hats in the ring. The Social Democrats were the party with the biggest gain with an incredible 165% increase on 2020, reflecting a wider trend nationally. Aontú also gained just shy of 131%, while Labour were up 17%. Outside of Sinn Féin, it also wasn’t good news for Fine Gael who lost over 34% of their first-preference share, while the Green Party lost over 40%, a sign of things to come for the party nationwide.
By 7pm, Jack Chambers and Paul Donnelly were elected with triumphant celebrations from both their camps. Emer Currie of Fine Gael wasn’t expecting to be elected on Day 1 as was her camp – although outgoing TD Leo Varadkar also made an appearance – but she got through on Count 2 thanks to Chambers’ surplus votes.
The count resumed at 10am on Sunday but it became apparent that there wouldn’t be much in the way of elections until the very last count. Elusive candidate John Forde and independent Umar Al-Qadri were first to be eliminated in Count 3, with Susanne Delaney following in Count 5, former Sinn Féin councillor Natalie Treacy in Count 6 and unsuccessful Fianna Fáil locals candidate Lorna Nolan in Count 7. Tania Doyle was the last independent standing but after an impressive fight, she nonetheless was eliminated in Count 9.
Count 9 also saw a shock development in the form of Ellen Troy jumping to fifth following the redistribution of Patrick Quinlan’s votes, putting her in contention for a seat. Count 10 saw Troy extend her lead further, with Breda Hanaphy ruled out of the race. Her redistributed votes put O’Gorman and Walsh back in the running, but it was in Count 12 following Ellen Murphy’s elimination when O’Gorman once again felt confident in keeping his seat. This proved true in the final count, with Ruth Coppinger and Roderic O’Gorman elected without reaching the quota.
The celebrations (and fallout)
Fianna Fáil were undoubtedly the biggest winners here with Jack Chambers being re-elected on the first count with over 2,000 excess votes. Sinn Féin’s Paul Donnelly was also an instant election, but with the caveat of a reduced first-preference vote and finishing in second place compared to first in 2020. However, Sinn Féin’s second candidate Cllr Breda Hanaphy outperformed Fianna Fáil’s Lorna Nolan by a wide margin. The decision to run a second Fianna Fáil candidate, not least one who did not secure a seat in the June local elections, remains a baffling one, but the party will be too engrossed in Chambers’ victory to spend much time dwelling on this. Fine Gael’s Emer Currie was elected on the first day of counting to their surprise; outgoing TD Leo Varadkar happened to be in attendance to speak to RTÉ, so was there to join the celebrations.
Independents also performed strongly for the most part, with Tania Doyle making it to the ninth count after surviving multiple rounds of eliminations. Following Cllr Patrick Quinlan’s election in June – the first elected representative for the National Party – there was hope and fear, depending on who you were, that far-right and anti-immigration candidates would build on their local election performances and elect their first TD. However, the first-round elimination of John Forde and Susanne Delaney’s votes not seeing much of a boost for Cllr Quinlan meant that he was eliminated on the eighth count.
Ellen Troy’s performance may have shocked some in the count centre, but there is no denying that the party performed strongly in the June local elections here in Dublin 15. Additionally, both elected councillors – Troy and Gerard Sheehan – were well known in their communities, which clearly helped in their eventual election. Something that would have proven interesting in the Dáil is Troy’s own personal politics which doesn’t always seem in alignment with the party’s: she hosted a Paint for Palestine fundraiser back in March, while Peadar Tóibín’s own engagement with the devastation in Gaza and the West Bank has been scant. In our pre-election interview, Troy also claimed the issue of abortion, on which the party was founded, was in the past and that she doesn’t see much appetite for re-running a referendum.
Nonetheless, it remains a big breakthrough for the party in Dublin, and even if Tóibín fresh from his own re-election was expecting to arrive in Phibblestown to join the jubilations – Troy had already made her exit before the result was announced – he did end up having something to celebrate, as the party finally elected its second TD Paul Lawless in Mayo. Those who were following our live blog may have seen our post about the two little dogs that joined us in the count centre late on Sunday: we later found out these belonged to Sally McEllistrim, Troy’s own press officer. Even if she didn’t grab that last seat in Dublin West, her discerning ability to get her name and message out there will undoubtedly prove a key asset to Tóibín and his party in the years to come.
The big story nationally was the Green Party’s electoral defeat, but there was one silver lining in the form of Roderic O’Gorman’s re-election. He remained optimistic even as the second day of counting begun, but Ellen Troy’s performance on transfers made it a nail-biting battle to retain his, and the party’s last, seat. A late breakthrough in the form of Ellen Murphy’s elimination gave O’Gorman a much-needed boost, and by the final count he led Troy by over 1,000 votes to take the fifth seat. In addition to much criticism of the party itself, O’Gorman was subject to a torrent of vitriol and homophobia online, including even from other candidates. Locally, and regardless of party lines, he remains a well-respected figure, so it was hard not to feel the elation across the room for his re-election after what has been an annus horribilis for him and, yet again, for the Greens.
A near-total wipeout of the Greens means he likely won’t be re-entering a coalition government – Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are on track to be just 2 short of an overall majority per Virgin Media News’ Gavan Reilly – but if a reconcilliation is on the cards, he has one potential Green TD in waiting. Paul Gogarty, who was a victim of the Greens’ last decimation in 2011, was re-elected in neighbouring Dublin Mid-West as an independent after being a sitting councillor for the past 10 years. He has continued to “fight the good fight” when it comes to the environment on the council and did not seem to shy away from entering an FF-FG coalition when asked, so it does seem a plausible option for a coalition partner. After the Greens’ performance this weekend, it is hard to see Labour and most certainly the Social Democrats falling over themselves to be, as the former’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin put it, thrown under the bus by the two larger parties.
If O’Gorman was “last man standing”, then Ruth Coppinger was “comeback queen” after re-gaining the seat she lost to him in the 2020 election. Coppinger stayed steadfast in fourth place as the count progressed, and despite some whispers saying she’d drop to fifth in the final count, she held ground and was elected with over 1,000 votes separating them. With a pro-life party and several far-right candidates in the mix, her celebrations after election quickly pivoted to something of a battle cry: her camp led chants of “Free Palestine” with keffiyehs and Palestinian flags waved, and made vocal their opposition to anti-immigration and -abortion candidates. Additionally, her election alongside Emer Currie’s means Dublin West once again has female representation in the Dáil after Coppinger and Labour’s Joan Burton lost their seats in the last election.
